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Bay Swim Difficulty Rankings
A host of factors determine the "difficulty" of a Great Chesapeake Bay
Swim (GCBS) event. The three primary factors that contributed to the variations
shown below are tidal currents, water temperature, and wind conditions (which affects
swell, chop, and surface currents). The difficulty rankings in the table below
reflect what the average swimmer experiences; hence, "percent finishing" and
"average time for 45-55 %-tiles of starters" are more important indicators than
the times of the fastest swimmers. A chart that
graphs time versus finishing percentile is probably the best way to compare the relative
difficulty of different Bay Swim events. For facts about tidal currents see NOAA information, and for past water
temperature and wind conditions see the data presented at the Past Conditions web page.
These statistics are archival and have not been updated to include GCBSs
after 2003.
1986-2003 Bay Swims Ranked
from EASIEST to MOST DIFFICULT |
| Graphic Depiction of
rankings. |
Average Times |
| Click year for results. |
Percent
Finishing |
Winning
Time |
Starters |
All
Finishers |
Notes |
|
Ranking |
Year |
Top 10% |
45-55% |
| EASIEST |
1 |
1998 |
97.1% |
1:27:12 |
1:35:21 |
2:06:16 |
2:06:16 |
a/b/ |
 |
2 |
2002 |
99.3% |
1:25:07 |
1:35:54 |
2:08:02 |
2:11:14 |
b/c/ |
3 |
1990 |
96.3% |
1:24:28 |
1:37:09 |
2:10:32 |
2:12:28 |
a/c/ |
4 |
1993 |
96.9% |
1:33:22 |
1:42:51 |
2:18:59 |
2:19:19 |
d/ |
5 |
1994 |
96.6% |
1:32:28 |
1:42:44 |
2:16:44 |
2:18:34 |
6 |
2001 |
97.1% |
1:32:24 |
1:41:29 |
2:19:24 |
2:20:44 |
|
7 |
2000 |
96.8% |
1:26:42 |
1:42:54 |
2:20:54 |
2:21:58 |
|
8 |
1995 |
94.2% |
1:32:06 |
1:43:54 |
2:21:15 |
2:20:56 |
|
9 |
2003 |
89.2% |
1:27:36 |
1:40:30 |
2:22:05 |
2:20:24 |
|
10 |
1987 |
94.9% |
1:29:25 |
1:42:31 |
2:21:42 |
2:26:35 |
|
11 |
1996 |
90.6% |
1:35:52 |
1:48:56 |
2:31:53 |
2:29:17 |
|
12 |
1989 |
90.5% |
1:33:01 |
1:50:42 |
2:31:05 |
2:32:01 |
|
13 |
1999 |
83.8% |
1:35:48 |
1:49:45 |
2:31:46 |
2:27:50 |
|
| 14 |
1997 |
78.7% |
1:29:36 |
1:46:35 |
2:32:08 |
2:25:47 |
|
15 |
1986 |
81.2% |
1:42:37 |
1:56:49 |
2:53:09 |
2:45:34 |
e/ |
16 |
1988 |
67.2% |
1:30:57 |
1:50:58 |
2:45:17 |
2:28:38 |
|
17 |
1991 |
19.4% |
1:36:48 |
2:10:29 |
did not finish |
2:27:08 |
f/ |
| MOST DIFFICULT |
18 |
1992 |
14.5% |
1:47:20 |
2:21:21 |
did not finish |
2:33:37 |
|
| Notes: |
a/
The average times for the 66 swimmers who finished both in 1990 (2:06:38) and in 1998
(2:06:34) were virtually identical despite the fact that these individuals were all 8
years older in 1998 (average age in 1998 was 43.0 years)! 32 of these finishers
(average age = 40.1 years) posted a faster time in 1998 and 34 of them (average age = 45.7
years) were faster in 1990. |
b/
The average time for the 144 swimmers who finished both in 1998 (2:03:41) and in 2002
(2:09:05) was 5:24 slower in 2002. This is too great to be accounted for by 4 years
of aging. |
c/
The average time for the 51 swimmers who finished both in 1990 (2:06:27) and in 2002
(2:14:54) was 8:27 slower in 2002. Twelve years of aging should slow the group down
by over 10 minutes (approx. 1 min/yr). |
d/
The average time for the 191 swimmers who finished both in 1993 and in 1994 was 3 minutes
slower in 1994. |
e/
The 1986 course started at Westinghouse (south of the bridges) and finished by Hemingway's
Restaurant. Because this course is different than that for all the subsequent years,
the times are not comparable and the 1986 ranking is based on the percentage of starters
who completed the swim. |
f/
Swimmers in 1991 and in 1992 were challenged by a strong ebb current (about 2 knots in the
main channel), which prevented all but the strongest and most determined swimmers from
finishing the course. Only 22 swimmers finished both years (average times: 2:20:53
in 1991; 2:35:47 in 1992). |
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